The New Cold War: How Africa and Latin America Became the U.S.-China Battleground
There was a cold war during the 20 th century marked by proxy war in divided Berlin together with Cuban missile crisis. Today’s great-power struggle looks radically different—it’s playing out in lithium mines in Argentina, ports in Tanzania, and presidential palaces from Brasília to Nairobi. It is not only because of the military dominance that the U.S. and China are competing but rather because they are fighting to gain the loyalty of economically, and the Global South is the grand prize.
Why incubate anyway? This is not all about the superpower ego. The result will determine which countries will come to rely on the critical minerals that power our smart phones and electric cars, which countries will be piled under debts and whether democracy or authoritarianism is the default setting in the developing world.
China’s Chessboard: Loans, Ports, and “No Strings Attached” Money
The Chinese Belt and road Initiative (BRI) has poured more than a trillion dollars on infrastructure projects across the world since 2013, and it comes with a condition: ask Zambia. The southern African nation owes Beijing $6 billion, and after defaulting, Chinese creditors demanded stakes in mines and airports as collateral. A trend is that Sri Lanka released its Hambantota Port because it could not pay the BRI.
However there is something that the western media fails to understand that quite a number of African leaders would choose China. Why? No human rights lecture or corruption lecture. Nothing but green and motorways. Ethiopia new rail? Chinese-built. Kenya’s expressway? Chinese-funded.
Expert Insight:
The U.S brings democracy, China brings deliverables. In a country where ideology is trumped by poverty; which one prevails?
— Un-named African finance minister (Politico leak, 2024)
America’s Counterattack: Diplomacy, Drones, and Dollar Diplomacy
What did the U.S do? An odd combination of panic and realism. The investigation plans to compete with the BRI by the $600 billion Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) that is advanced slowly by Biden. In the meantime, AFRICOM has been increasing drone bases in Niger in silence, and the Pentagon warns of a Chinese base in Djibouti that is just miles away a U.S. one.
In Latin America the fight is about technology and trade. Brazil was strong-armed by the U.S. and banned Huawei 5G but Mexico continues to purchase Chinese surveillance technology to help track the cartels. Argentina, which boasts the third-largest in the world lithium stocks, is now confronted with a dilemma to either collaborate with the U.S. companies that insist on transparency or go with China whose deals take less time, but are less transparent.
Live Data:
- China-Africa trade: 254 billion dollars (2023)
- The U.S.-Africa trade: 64 billion dollars (2023) (Brookings Institute)
The Global South’s Game: Playing Both Sides
It is not the case that smaller nations are non-actors, they are using the super powers against one another. When the U.S asked Africa to condemn Russia, 17 countries abstained. Mexico joined the USMCA but still buys Chinese drones. Ethiopia entered a defense contract with the U.S. – and borrowed Chinese money to construct a dam.
The Case Study: The Lithium Wars
- The Chile nationalized its lithium industry, and it scared away U.S investors.
- Raw lithium stipulation was prohibited in Zimbabwe and that prompted China to erect the factories within its territory.
- Bolivia (which has the largest reserves in the world), awarded a Chinese group of contractors its concessions unopposed, by tender.
Who Wins? Hint: It Might Not Be Who You Think
The U.S possesses democracy and the soft power. China is fast, and it is deep pocketed. But the actual victors could be states such as India and Turkey, stepping in with lower priced and neutral offerings. Or perhaps, just perhaps, it is the Global South that will change the rules altogether and use this competition to get better terms.
Final Takeaway:
It is not a case of good and evil. It is leverage. The country that understands that the Global South is not to be bullied, but that it could only be struck a deal with, will be the one that will shape the 21 st century.
Thoughts?
- Is it predatory or pragmatic approach of China?
- Do we still have to sacrifice the U.S. values to remain competitive?
- Are Africa and Latin America to be kingmakers-or casualties?